Surface Runoff Processes and Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang

Manas River, the largest inland river to the north of the Tianshan Mountains, has an estimated natural flow of 13.19×10⁸ m³, a length of about 400 km and a mountainous catchment area of 5,156 km². The Manas River Basin is situated between the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains and the southern edge of the Junggar Basin. The basin has attracted much attention from researchers owing to both its fragile ecological environment and the importance of its economic status in Xinjiang since the 1950s. In recent years, with farmland area and population increasing, water resources have been over utilized, making the basin downstream and Manas Lake become completely dry. Subsequently, the groundwater depth of the basin has fallen rapidly and the ecosystem has been badly damaged. So, sustainable utilization of water resources has become more important for water management supervisors in the Manas River Basin. However, few researchers have conducted work in this basin.

In order to foster sustainable development of the socioeconomic system in the Manas River Basin, Prof. XU Hailiang and his research team revealed the changes in annual runoff processes and in climatic factors using the non-parametric test and extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis, and investigated the present status of potential water security using the methods of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have significantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and socioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Finally, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, this paper also suggested some effective measures to improve the status of water security.

The result has been published on Journal of Arid Land, 2012, 4(3): 271-280. The paper is also archived at http://jal.xjegi.com/EN/abstract/abstract148.shtml.

Accumulated difference curve and abrupt change at two hydrological stations in the Manas River Basin during the past 50 years. (Image by XIEG)