Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960–2010
2013-08-26
Water resources play the most important role in the sustainable development of society and economy in arid region. Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will intensify the hydrological cycle with more evaporation and more precipitation, which will alter the river system. Estimating the possible effects of climatic change on water recourses is particularly important for the researches aimed at supporting the sustainable management and long-term planning of water resources. It is especially important in the arid region where the supply of water resources is a major constraint for social development and ecological protection.
The effects of climate change on hydrology have been studied by many researchers in different regions. However, previous studies were conducted in a single small basin with low-quality hydroclimatic dataset, which make it difficult to draw general conclusions for study area.
To further understand the spatial distribution of the trends in the hydrometeorological variable, WANG Huaijun et al. divide the arid region of China into 28 basins according to Water Resource Partition Map of China. The long-term trends of the air temperature, precipitation and runoff time series are detected both at individual station and basin scale from 1960 to 2010. In addition, the sensitivities of runoff to climate change are investigated at basin scale.
Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series.
The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage.
The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management. The result was published in Chinese Geographical Science in June 2013.
The effects of climate change on hydrology have been studied by many researchers in different regions. However, previous studies were conducted in a single small basin with low-quality hydroclimatic dataset, which make it difficult to draw general conclusions for study area.
To further understand the spatial distribution of the trends in the hydrometeorological variable, WANG Huaijun et al. divide the arid region of China into 28 basins according to Water Resource Partition Map of China. The long-term trends of the air temperature, precipitation and runoff time series are detected both at individual station and basin scale from 1960 to 2010. In addition, the sensitivities of runoff to climate change are investigated at basin scale.
Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series.
The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage.
The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management. The result was published in Chinese Geographical Science in June 2013.