More People in Central Asia Tend to Be Exposed to Extreme Precipitation

As a consequence of global warming, increases in extreme precipitation will lead to more frequent natural disasters, which poses a great threat to regions with fragile ecosystems and poor infrastructure.

In a recent study published in Geography and Sustainability, researchers led by CHEN Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, assessed the impact of extreme precipitation on population in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios (GWS).

The researchers opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) from 10 Global Climate Models, and used population-weighted average changes to quantify population exposure to extreme precipitation in Central Asia.

They found that an increasing number of populations in Central Asia will be impacted by extreme precipitation with rising temperatures, and approximately one quarter of the population will be exposed to maximum daily precipitation with increases exceeding 8.31% under 1.5 °C GWS and 14.18% under 2 °C GWS.

Limiting temperature increases can effectively reduce the number of populations exposed to extreme precipitation. Researchers illustrated that reducing warming from 2°C to 1.5°C will result in a 2.79% reduction in the number of populations exposed to maximum daily precipitation.

"The future increase in extreme precipitation will negatively affect the survival of some vulnerable populations, which reminds us of the importance to develop climate adaptation and mitigation measures," said Prof. DUAN Weili, the corresponding author of this study.

"When developing adaptation and mitigation measures, it is necessary to take into account the dry climate, the complex terrain, and the socio-economic and political situations in Central Asia,” he added.

The study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of extreme precipitation, and provides an important reference for policy makers to formulate mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change.

Article link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geosus.2024.02.005

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn