Researchers Evaluate Climate Model Accuracy in Central Asia's Panj River Basin

A recent study conducted by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has evaluated the effectiveness of climate models in predicting temperature and precipitation patterns in Central Asia's Panj River Basin (PRB). 

This study was published in the journal Scientific Reports.

The researchers used high-resolution MERRA-2 data along with statistical methods to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) climate models in simulating precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin). They applied bilinear interpolation to standardize datasets to a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. For future climate projections, they incorporated CMIP6 scenarios, in addition to CMIP5 scenarios. A total of eight general circulation models (GCMs) were selected based on their applicability to the unique topographical features of the Panj River Basin.

To analyze regional climate patterns, the research employed the Köppen climate classification system while utilizing the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metric to evaluate model performance. The KGE integrates factors such as correlation, bias, and variability, ensuring a consistent assessment of both historical climate data from 1981 to 2005 and future projections.

Results showed that both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models were highly accurate in reproducing Tmax, with a correlation of 0.96, and Tmin, with a correlation of 0.94. Among the models, the CMIP6 simulation from the Max Planck Institute performed exceptionally well across multiple climate variables. Additionally, models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Institute for Numerical Mathematics displayed strong accuracy for specific parameters.

Furthermore, the CMIP6 models showed a reduction in uncertainty regarding precipitation predictions, facilitating better identification of climate zones. "Despite these advancements, the future projections indicate a rise in temperature coupled with increased variability in precipitation," said Aminjon Gulakhmadovn, first author of the study.

This study highlights the necessity for improved climate models to support further research and adaptive strategies in the Panj River Basin.

Article link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86366-4

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn