Study Reveals Seasonal Time-Lag Effects of Meteorological Factors on Extreme Precipitation in Central Asia's Tienshan Mountains

A recent study, published in Journal of Hydrology, led by Prof. CHEN Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has explored the time-lag effects of meteorological elements and atmospheric signals on extreme precipitation (EP) indices in the Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia (TMCA).

The researchers used long-term meteorological data to generate EP indices. By applying methods such as partial correlation and wavelet coherence, they analyzed the seasonal fluctuations of EP and the characteristics of its time-lag effects.

The researchers found that most EP indices exhibit seasonal differentiation, with higher values in summer and lower values in winter. Temperature and water vapor content show the shortest time-lag periods for EP during spring and summer, respectively.

In addition, researchers identified the main driving factors behind the time-lag effects across different seasons, including the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High Intensity (NSI), Solar Flux (SF), NINO B area sea surface temperature anomaly (NINOB), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

"These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamic responses between EP and climatic factors," said WANG Yihan, first author of the study.

This study enhances the understanding of the time-lag effects in the TMCA amid climate change, and provides important theoretical support for formulating disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

Article Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132902

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn