Climate Change Drives Increasing Snow Droughts Worldwide

A recent study highlights a concerning rise in snow droughts globally, driven by changing climate patterns. Snow droughts occur when there is an abnormally low snowpack for the season, classified as either “dry”— resulting from below-normal winter precipitation, or “warm”— caused by warmer temperatures that lead to rain rather than snow or early snowmelt despite normal precipitation levels.

Led by Prof. LI Zhi from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the researchers analyzed future snow drought trends using ERA5-Land and multi-model CMIP6 climate datasets. Their findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters, project a significant increase in snow drought frequency under different climate scenarios.

By the year 2100, the frequency of snow droughts is expected to be three times higher under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and four times higher under the more severe SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to 1981 levels. Warm snow droughts are anticipated to dominate, making up approximately 65% of all events by 2050.

The study also warns of an escalating risk of dry-warm compound snow droughts, especially under high-emission conditions. Under SSP5-8.5, these compound droughts could become 3.7 times more common than in the past, while warm snow droughts alone could increase by a staggering 6.6 times.

Moreover, snow droughts are shifting from dry to warm or dry-warm compound. Spatially, mid- and high-latitude regions are projected to experience more frequent and intense snow droughts.

These findings provide critical scientific insights to inform water security strategies and climate adaptation efforts worldwide.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL114641

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn