Natural Factors Predominantly Drive Desertification in Central Asia

A recent study led by Prof. TAO Hui from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has revealed that natural factors are the primary drivers of desertification across Central Asia. This study was published in Catena.

Using multi-source remote sensing data, meteorological records, and socio-economic information collected over four decades, the researchers analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of desertification in Central Asia. They then employed a non-linear Granger causality framework to quantify the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors.

The study revealed that approximately 14.81% of Central Asia's drylands underwent desertification between 1982 and 2020. Crucially, the study found that natural factors accounted for 69.1% of the total desertified area, with anthropogenic factors contributing to the remaining 30.9%.

Researchers pinpointed snow water equivalent as the dominant natural driver of degradation in critical ecosystems including croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and bare lands. In contrast, temperature was identified as the primary driver of forest degradation.

This study provides crucial insights into the complex processes driving desertification in Central Asia's vulnerable dryland, highlighting the need for region-specific land management and ecological conservation strategies.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.109154

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn