Central Asia Beyond Safe Operating Space, Study Reveals

A new study published in Earth's Future delivers a stark warning that Central Asia has overshot its environmental safety limits concerning land footprint and biosphere integrity. The study, led by Prof. DUAN Weili from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides a comprehensive sustainability assessment and identifies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as priority areas for environmental management.

As one of the world's largest arid regions, Central Asia faces mounting ecological stress. Rapid population growth is intensifying demands for water and energy resources, pushing the region precariously close to, or indeed beyond, its absolute environmental sustainability (AES).

To quantify these pressures, the research team developed a framework combining environmental footprints with downscaled Planetary Boundaries (PBs) for the period 2000-2020. They assessed six PB indicators: water footprint, carbon footprint, nitrogen footprint, phosphorus footprint, land footprint, and human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP).

Their findings reveal that the region's land footprint and HANPP have severely exceeded their corresponding boundaries. They describe this as a state of "extreme absolute unsustainability", a clear indicator that current patterns of land and ecological consumption are dangerously unsustainable.

"Our study shows that Central Asia's environmental pressure mainly stems from its domestic consumption," said ZHU Ziyang, first author of the study." This underscores an urgent need for targeted policies, like improving irrigation efficiency and adopting scientific land management, to steer development back into a safe operating space."

Researchers suggest that enhancing resource utilization efficiency and strengthening international cooperation are effective strategies. Besides, adopting technologies like advanced drip irrigation and implementing scientific grazing policies could significantly mitigate environmental degradation.

This study provides a scientific guidance for Central Asia to navigate towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006129

Contact

LONG Huaping

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: longhp@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn