Study Reveals Drought Propagation Dynamics in Glacierized Catchments

A research team led by Prof. Guli Jiapaer from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (XIEG), in collaboration with Ghent University, Belgium, has developed an innovative bi-stage framework to decode how meteorological droughts propagate into hydrological droughts in glacier-fed river catchments. The study was published in Journal of Hydrology on April 7, 2026.

Due to the influence of glacier meltwater, it is challenging to investigate the propagation process from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in glacierized catchments from the event perspective.

To address this challenge, the researchers developed a bi-stage drought propagation analysis framework (BDPF). This framework introduces the concept of recharge drought, establishing an intermediate state between meteorological and hydrological droughts. It divides the drought propagation process into two stages, one attributed to meltwater release and the other to catchment controls. Recharge drought is quantified by the Standardized Glacierized Catchment Recharge Index (SGI), which is defined by the sum of rainfall, snowmelt, and glacial meltwater and can be directly compared with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI).

The results demonstrated that the BDPF outperforms traditional frameworks in terms of event matching and interpretability. The analysis reveals drought propagation patterns at the intra-annual scale and shows that meltwater reduces drought propagation rate, duration, and severity. Furthermore, glaciers exert a more pronounced effect at the inter-annual scale, whereas catchment snow dynamics had a greater impact at the intra-annual scale.

The researchers also quantified the sensitivity of drought propagation to catchment control. Due to the limited capacity of baseflow to buffer drought, catchment control tends to amplify drought signals, thereby contributing to more prolonged and severe hydrological droughts.

This study highlights the key influencing factors and complex dynamics of drought propagation in glacierized catchments, providing a theoretical basis for early drought warning systems and adaptive water resource management under cold climates.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135461

Theoretical framework for the Bi-stage drought propagation framework (BDPF) and Direct drought propagation framework (DDPF). (Image by XIEG)

Contact:

PAN Xiaohui

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography

E-mail: panxiaohui@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn