Study Reveals Hydrological Response to Glacier Peak Water in the Tarim River Basin

A research team led by Prof. CHEN Yaning from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (XIEG), has revealed the hydrological response of river runoff to glacier peak water in the Tarim River Basin, the largest inland river basin in China. The study was published in Journal of Hydrology on May 17, 2026.

Glaciers are critical solid water reservoirs in arid regions and serve as a key source of river runoff in mountainous areas. Changes in glacier meltwater have significant implications for regional water security, ecological protection, and socioeconomic development. Under global climate change, glacier melt has intensified, and glacier meltwater processes and their impacts on river runoff are undergoing substantial changes. However, whether river runoff will decline immediately after glacier meltwater reaches its peak remains highly uncertain.

To address this challenge, the research team used a Long short-term memory (LSTM) model and integrated climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios with glacier runoff datasets to assess future changes in seven headwaters catchments in the Tarim River Basin.

Model validation demonstrated that the LSTM model performed well in the Tarim River Basin. For monthly runoff simulation in the seven typical sub-basins, the median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient, Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were 0.77, 0.82, and −2.08%, respectively. The model also showed good performance for daily runoff simulation, with NSE, KGE, and PBIAS values of 0.53, 0.69, and −2.09%, respectively.

Under the SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, runoff in the major rivers of the Tarim River Basin is projected to continue increasing during the 21st century, while changes under SSP126 are generally insignificant. Spatial differences were evident among the main headwater rivers.

By the end of the 21st century, runoff in the Aksu River on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is projected to increase by 10% under SSP245 and 21% under SSP585, while runoff in the Kaidu River is projected to increase by 11% and 18%, respectively. Rivers on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains showed larger increases, with the Yarkand River and Hotan River exhibiting the most pronounced growth under SSP245 and SSP585 relative to the 2000-2014 baseline period.

The study further found that the occurrence of glacier peak water does not necessarily lead to an immediate decline in river runoff. Taking the glacier peak water year as the reference point, the researchers divided the runoff response into three 30-year stages: the before glacier peak water period (from 45 to 16 years before the peak year), the during (from 15 years before to 15 years after the peak year), and the after (from 16 to 45 years after the peak year) stage.

Results from seven typical sub-basins in the Tarim River Basin showed that annual runoff remained relatively high during both the peak-transition and post-peak stages compared with the pre-peak stage. This indicates that, even after glacier peak water occurs, river runoff may continue to remain stable or elevated for a certain period.

These findings suggest that the Tarim River Basin may maintain relatively stable and high runoff conditions during the 21st century. This provides important scientific support for long-term water security planning for agriculture, ecosystems, and socioeconomic development in southern Xinjiang. The study also offers a transferable approach for assessing water resources in glacier-fed alpine basins, contributing to the sustainable use of the “Central Asian Water Tower” and to hydrological adaptation strategies in global arid regions.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135695

Fig. 1. Comparison between simulated and observed river discharge during the validation period. (Image by XIEG)

Fig. 2. Future projections of river discharge in the 21st century and the timing of glacier peak water in the Tarim River Basin. (Image by XIEG)

Contact

FANG Gonghuan

Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

E-mail: fanggh@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Web: http://english.egi.cas.cn